quote:

That means we are ahead of ourselves and there is little to drive the market higher. Only hints of higher numbers and that is met with scepticism.—Doug

     I hope you're right. I would welcome another chance to buy at bargain prices. I suspect, though, that we are seeing the beginning of a bull marked based solely on a flight from currency to equities, which have some resistance to inflation. If I'm right, investors should change their way of thinking since the market will be less suitable for trading.
Seán

Buy signal! Curses! There goes the bargain bonanza.
Sean

     Futures and after-hours trading indicate yet another up-day tomorrow. Is there no justice? Must I resign myself to paying fair prices for my stock? Will S&P 500 move above 1000 with no decent hesitation? Woe, oh woe, is me!
Seán

It is not unexpected. I always have assumed the long term outlook was up and rather significantly but I did expect one more big dip before the Bull was in place.

In a way, we sorta got it. We bounced off the dips around 870-880 a couple of times.

It looks like we won't get all what I was looking for. We are still overvalued in the short term but undervalued in the longer term. I expected that battle to take longer to play out.

The stimulus money they always said would start to flow in six months with the upfront money trickling in. Six months puts it in September. The tax cut money, which was small, trickling in and circulating builds month after month. So that upward bias grows.

But I think there is a change going on. Last two quarters companies wouldn't hardly guess at future quarter earnings. Now we are hearing some hints of increases in expected revenues.

The S&P 500 is greatly overvalued on current earnings. Those earnings have been depressed by losses in some sectors and charge offs for downsizing and cost cutting.

It is still over valued, imo, for near term earnings as well. "Maybe" fair value for next years, maybe. I think there is more than a little recovery being priced in.

"On the other hand";

The flip side is that surviving and well managed companies are getting lean and mean, paying down debt, cutting staff, and there is a record availability of manufacturing capacity. With costs reduced earnings could explode to the upside with improved conditions.

And the market fall, if figured from the high (assuming it wasn't too overpriced for the earnings at the time) has only corrected to 63% of the high. That is still a substantial discount. Add in any inflation, growth from population, market share increases due to companies that have failed, and so on then the upside is still big over the next couple of years.

Yes, there are still some flies in the ointment, like more foreclosures and commercial real estate with pending large project or major holders going bankrupt. But some of that is being mitigated now. And those companies whose profits were high due to overleverage, if they haven't failed, will not be able to make the same profit margins with lower leverage. That will dampen a sector like the financials or REITs. But those with money will be able to benefit from lower prices. Ying-Yang, if there is the money. But the government is flooding the economy with money at the moment. Credit is not loose yet but could loosen with a recovery in place.

Right now, I think some of this rally is from the sense that there is nothing in sight that will or could bring the economy crashing down from here, derailing any hope of recovery.

So half optimism, half relief. I am thinking both are valid and I am no longer looking for a short term tumble of any significance. I have been looking for it for a couple of months from my last exit and every day makes it less likely.

So I have changed my stance and I will be buying the dips. Still hoping for some cheaper prices but not expecting as low as I expected just a couple of months ago.

Time to make some money again, me thinks. I've done gone Bullish from Bearish with little stopping at neutral.

Best wishes to you picking off the dips in your choice stocks. I will miss seeing those high yield numbers but I can be happy with capital gains too.

quote:

...surviving and well managed companies are getting lean and mean, paying down debt, cutting staff, and there is a record availability of manufacturing capacity. With costs reduced earnings could explode to the upside with improved conditions.—Doug

     Hear, hear! I think making money is a waste of time with inflation pending. Buying the kind of companies you describe is a good way for preserving capital, which, someday, we'll sorely need. I'll buy them on the dips, where that is possible; in any case I will be buying. And then, of course, I'll dump them when the economy becomes exuberant again.
Seán

AA should rise, but that's ridiculous. On high volume too.
Seán

Premarket prices are sharply down today. This may be a good time to pick up a few shares of some stock still out of favor. PFE?
Seán

quote:

My DOW survived the expected cut in dividend better than I thought it would. However, I was able to buy a lot at $9.96 and could have done better, had I waited. I'm half afraid I'll get an even better opportunity tomorrow! Looking back I realize I paid $15 a share when I bought my first batch! It helps to dollar average.

1 and 3/4ths of a year later your "bad" buy is sitting on a double and your better buy is a TRIPLE.

Nicely done sir.

quote:

Nicely done...

Well, fortunate at least. The PFE has not fared as well: The average growth of several purchases, today is 0.06%. That is really something to sneeze at. Still, I hang on and hope. They'll do something right eventually, no doubt.
Seán

     Three cheers! The GDP is telling us recession's over! Some savants are expecting a bull market straight ahead. And I'm inclined to agree with them except I expect to see a major sell-off first. If I'm right we'll see some January bargains, which I will buy aggressively because I doubt there'll be another chance till April.
Seán

     Trading volume was above average today but eager buyers kept stock prices high. When demand decreases, a quick correction should afford buying opportunities. Patience and restraint are needed now.
Seán

     Drat! Today ended a piddling 3-session market slump with a tepid gain. Such is not the action I envisioned and certainly damps the urge to buy. For me the one bright spot is Alcoa (AA), which reports results better than expected. That news resulted in a sell-off, I assume by profit-takers. If the drop continues it may afford a buying opportunity, but I'm not very hopeful. Perhaps the dividend will grow. That would be welcome because I own a lot of it already.
Seán

I expect to see better than expected earnings from most of my stocks that I own. Apple will probably sell off tomorrow cause of the news about Steve Jobs taking a leave. However, it should bounce back when reporting earnings this week.

     This past year's graph of AAPL's prices looks like a stairway to the stars. Of course, it can't go up forever but I doubt Jobs' taking leave will upset the Apple chart.
Seán

WOW!

The technological singularity begins on December 21, 2012. Mark my words.

When that happens, AAPL, GOOG, and BIDU rise to infinity.

Gus,
     What do you mean by "technological singularity" and why do you place the date at 12/21/2012?
Seán

Gus,
     I looked up technological singularity and 12-21-2012. Those are interesting conjectures but I'd hesitate
at including them in my investment plans.
Seán

Duplicate

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
Gus,
     I looked up technological singularity and 12-21-2012, as well. Those are interesting conjectures but I'd hesitate
at including them in my investment plans.
Seán

Nobody's gonna be able to sell anything after 12/21/12. Capital gains are gonna be a bitsch.

Singularity Hub

Gus,
     The predicted dire events pose no real dilemma. If either one does happen
the wise way to spend our remaining time is as enjoyably as possible. Attempting
countermeasures would be entirely futile.
     On the other hand, expectations of disaster may lead to wide-spread consternation
among investors and create great buying opportunities, leading to handsome profits
if the predictions fail. Such buying would entail no risk for an investor because, if doomsday
happens, all will be lost in any case.
Seán

Oh, I don't think anything bad will happen. The technological singularity is going to be GREAT!!!

Gus,
    The current concept of technological singularity is new to me, although like ideas
have been long familiar. Briefly: When artificial intelligence supercedes that of humans,
humanity will become superflous and, therefore, will go extinct eventually.
    Why do you consider such a fate to be a good thing?
Seán

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
Gus,
    The current concept of technological singularity is new to me, although like ideas
have been long familiar. Briefly: When artificial intelligence supercedes that of humans,
humanity will become superflous and, therefore, will go extinct eventually.
    Why do you consider such a fate to be a good thing?
Seán

It wouldn't be a good thing if we actually go extinct. However, I expect the machines to worship us as gods.

quote:

...I expect the machines to worship us as gods.—Gus

     No machine gullible enough to do that could properly be called
intelligent.
Seán