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I own an overdose of pharma stock but another pill or two can't hurt. Specifically, if MRK goes down to $33 or ABT down to $46, I'll feel compelled to buy. Small batches, though, because they may fall some more before resuscitating.
Seán |
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On second thought, MRK looks as if it may go as low $32 so I have placed a standing bid at $32.10.
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Despite today's sell-off MRK closed at $33.07, still $0.93 above my offer. I am tempted raise my bid a bit but will exercise restraint. At the worst I'll miss a bargain buy, but that won't greatly matter because some other stock is sure to seem equally attractive.
Seán |
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This was a dire day for big-pharma stocks, thanks, I think, to Cramer who proclaimed their earnings are so poor that investors are now losing money. MRK, the one I'm after, was down to $32.85 at closing, which is only 75 cents above my standing offer, so I may get it after all. I suppose it's too late now to send an e-valentine to Cramer.
Seán |
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Thanks to a bit of added help from Colonel Gaddafi, MRK went to $32.10 today, which triggered my standing offer. The stock closed at $32.09, so I could have saved a cent by ad lib bidding. I'll do that if the price falls below $30, which very well may happen with investors now so skittish.
Seán |
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So much for pills. Moving on to perils:
With oil prices up so high I think there is a fair chance oil stocks may go higher because of active buying by investors seeking quick profits. I'll sit that phase out because I've learned not to chase stocks when they are on the rise. But the Arabian revolutions will be ending someday, causing oil prices to fall again. When that happens, the price of oil stocks may also fall because of panic selling. If that happens I will buy more XOM and, probably, a lot of RDS.B. Seán |
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I am heavily invested in INTC and it is performing poorly, probably because AAPL is going elsewhere for its chips. I doubt Apple, by itself can wreak disaster on Intel, so I intend to hold on to INTC, in hope it will recover. This may be a grave mistake.
Seán |
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Dow Industrials went down 168 points today and every stock I own lost value. This happened even though trading volumes were well below their averages. My guess is there was a dearth of buyers and that they were bidding low.
Also, Mr. Benanke's tepid assessment of the effect of rising oil prices contributed to uncertainty about the future. Seán |
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Stock futures, oil futures and Treasury yields all indicate stocks will be selling off tomorrow morning. If investors are alarmed enough to panic, there may be a fresh round of buying opportunities.
Seán |
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Google "stock market crash in 2011" and you'll turn up a plethora of pundits saying one is imminent and warning investors to cut and run while they still have a pot to pee in. That talk is encouraging because a crash would restore opportunities to buy sound stock at bargain prices, which is nigh impossible at this time. I'll save up my pennies until it's buying time again.
I won't be selling stocks I own because I bought them all when they were very cheap and the dividends they pay are soothing. A possible exception is INTC; I still can't see why it's a laggard nor do I see the stock improving. Seán |
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The indices were down again today and my stocks followed suit. Trading volume, overall, was only slightly above average. I saw no signs of panic selling and I also saw no bargains. If tomorrow is another down-day, buying opportunities may emerge. I have no expectations, so I'll just wait to see.
Seán |
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I would never have expected the US markets to rise after the devastating earthquake in Japan, but that is exactly what they did. My concern about the tragedy overwhelmed all interest in investment.
Beyond havoc wrought by the earthquake and flooding lurks the danger that nuclear installations may explode for lack of cooling. The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 is burned into my memory. Seán |
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All of my favored indicators say the prices of American stocks will plunge tomorrow. It appears investors are beginning to realize the true magnitude of the Japanese disaster. I'll hang in there and wait until we see something like a bottom before I buy a share of anything.
Seán |
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While trading volume generally was above average today, the sell-off was clearly not from panic. Possibly the calming element was the soothing message from Mr. Bernanke who says all is well except for joblessness. Mr. B's opinion notwithstanding, I expect to see more selling-off tomorrow.
Seán |
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Some I have heard saying that they expect we will likely see the yearly low around this time as a result of this selling. I think we were a little ahead of ourselves and the market was willing to use anything as an excuse to go lower. Not to say that Japan or the Mideast is without influence. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ In a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act. |
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Trading volume today was well above the average and the price of nearly every stock was down. We are bordering on a panic. Tomorrow may bring a brief recovery, but I expect the down-trend to continue for a time.
I am more troubled by the thought that Japan will need a lot of money to finance its recovery, and likely it will get it by selling US Treasuries massively. I think that may push up interest rates so high that our government will find them difficult to pay without incurring greater debt. Seán |
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After two days of recovery most stocks are back where they were before the sell-off. We are now facing a military intervention in Libya and more bad news from Japan, where melt-downs are still likely and realistic death-toll data can be expected to emerge. With that in mind, no one should be surprised if the market plunges further.
I took a chance and bought some MRK at $31.81. Possibly it may go down from there, but I thought that price was low enough. I'll buy some more for sure, if it gets close to $30. Seán |
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Indications favor another up-day for tomorrow's market. That passeth understanding, considering how bad the current news is. It seems time for yet another crashlet to provide a buying opportunity. I can't just go on buying CAG and MRK forever, although probably I should.
One item of possible interest is the pattern of insider selling of AAPL from January through March. All selling; no buys at all, except for rights exercised. I've seen no mention of this, elsewhere. Seán |
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Financial pages on the Internet are emphasizing the importance of the jobs report tomorrow.
A big drop in new jobs would signal the starting of a new recession, but matching or bettering last month's 200,000 new jobs will show the economy is recovering. I think the jobs increase is foregone and that the hype about it is designed to build investor's optimism. Doubtlessly the indexes will be up tomorrow. Seán |
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The present price of INTC at $19.49 is less than the average of what I've payed for it and is below its 200-day moving average. Its fundamentals are impeccable and there has been no insider selling for at least a year. I'll wait a bit to see if it goes lower before I make a bid.
Make the bid I will, because I'm sure Intel will sell a lot of chips in lieu of those Japan would normally supply but can't, following the disaster on March 11. Seán |
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Today's earthquake in Japan today triggered enough recent stop-loss orders to bring stock prices down. Selling volume was low however. By session's end, my losses neatly matched my gains from yesterday. By not reacting I saved myself a taxable event, the trouble entailed with reinvestment and the expense of further broker's fees.
Seán |
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Trading volume for my stocks was light today, except for AA. which was down 6.02% for the day, at $16.32.
Selling pressure on that stock came from chagrin that its earnings were slightly less than analysts predicted and in spite of good performance and bright prospects for the coming quarter. At the present price I would buy it without a second thought if I did not own a lot of it already, bought back when the price was a great deal lower. The least attractive feature of the issue is its puny dividend: 3 cents a share will cause no hearts to flutter. Seán |
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Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on U.S. government credit to negative from stable, asserting the value of our dollar is at risk unless Democrats and Republicans agree on a program for debt reduction by 2013. I have no useful opinion about the validity of S&P's projection, but I think its effect on stock prices was disproportionately large: The S&P 500 fell to 1295 at the outset but partially recovered to 1313 at the end of the trading day. All this with low-to-average trading volume for most individual issues.
I expect to see a strong recovery tomorrow; if the crash continues I'll take it as an opportunity for buying. Seán |
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This is no time for bargain hunters to buy stock, since prices are high and heading higher. It might be better to "sell in May and go away" but that would be to give up dividends on shares bought at far lower prices. I have no need for profit-taking now and no reason to liquidate a holding—even INTC, the laggard, is behaving nicely—so I'll just sit on my current portfolio and neither buy nor sell.
One possible exception is TNK, which is really in the dog house among investors. It last sold at $9.40 and will probably go lower. If it sinks to $8.50 I'll take a small position on the hope it may appreciate this fall or in the early winter. Seán |
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Let this be a lesson to me: TNK charts looked likely to bottom out today, so I bid $9.05 while its real-time price was $9.12. My bid was snapped up in a moment, although the real-time price moved higher, providing a small paper profit in an instant. Fortunately, I was able to restrain my joy because, by the end of the day TNK was priced at $9.01 and I was certified a looser.
With luck, it may go down again tomorrow so I can buy another smidgen of it at the $8.50 price I dreamed of. TNK is not at all the kind of stock I deal in, although its fundamentals are sound enough to satisfy. Its chief attraction is its dividend at 13% of its current price, per year. That should ease my pain a little. Seán |
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