Stimulus can be addictive, so withdrawal pangs can be expected as the Fed reduces its support. Mr. Bernanke seems to know what he is doing: This first move was accepted calmly. Of course it made the dollar stronger, which may cause a little trouble.
     Do you really think a 10% correction is likely to happen in the near future? I would see it as an opportunity for buying, so it would please me greatly. I'm still hope to purchase more XOM at $60, but then I'd also like to buy a flying pig.
Seán

     Let the good times roll! More manufacturing means more jobs.
Seán

quote:

Do you really think a 10% correction is likely to happen in the near future? I would see it as an opportunity for buying, so it would please me greatly.

Sorry to disappoint, but no, not this time. It is still playing out as I was guessing, that we would spend some time solidifying around the S&P 500 1,100 mark after the move last year. So far that has been true.

Earlier it appeared we were moving higher and too fast. I was thinking a correction might be coming from a bit of a higher level which would not help you catch any flying pigs.

My mental mark I think I mentioned earlier is 20% for the year figuring a little improvement in the economy. So I won't get nervous or wasn't looking for a correction before we see 1250-1300 or so too soon.

There could be some left in this correction. I doubt too much but one never knows the news or short term. This going nowhere fast is what I expected for now before any substantial move up.

Like you though, I do have money I want to put to work.

News Hub: Bracing for a Bond Bubble
Video- While the link lasts.

quote:

It is still playing out as I was guessing, that we would spend some time solidifying around the S&P 500 1,100 mark after the move last year.

The last month or two I have had days and weeks where I have been up big, down big, up and up, down and down, up, down, up, down,...

Today after this week being down a little one day and down big the next, the next day up a little and now starting today waaay down but bouncing back ...where are we?

At the moment sitting exactly at 1,100.

haha. Lots of noise but no movement.

     I checked S&P 500, Year-to-Date, and it is down about 30 points but rising. Thus inspired, I looked at the YTD charts for every stock I own and found every one of them a looser for the period. However, only XOM, my most recent acquisition, is now below the price I paid for it. If there is the slightest sign of more bad news about the oil business I may get that opportunity to buy more Exxon for $60.
Seán

My current read and philosophy says not to worry about Year to Date in what I expect to be a continued flat stablizing period. As said before it is always nice to catch a dip when you can but a large dip is not currently expected. Possible but everything I figure at the moment leans to an upside trend but later and possibly very slow at first.

The risk is to being left behind if we get a bounce. Today's current prices in some, maybe most, stocks may look cheap next year.

I do wonder about your choice of XOM over COP that Cramer now prefers. It has a lower PE, current and estimated for next year, and a higher dividend. True XOM has the bigger reserves but that is only one factor.

     I've not ruled out COP by any means. My preference for XOM is because Warren Buffet dumped a huge amount of it, so there is a chance the Buffet copycats will drive its price down for a while. COP's price trend has been upward; when it dips I will be a buyer. I think $40 would be a lovely price.
Seán
PS: On the other hand...

     The Gloom and Doom Commentators for Marketwatch are in full cry again. This may mean the markets are on the verge of a surprising upward surge, but I don't see how that could happen.
Seán

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
     The Gloom and Doom Commentators for Marketwatch are in full cry again. This may mean the markets are on the verge of a surprising upward surge, but I don't see how that could happen.
Seán

THAT is nothing but a Republican Obama economy BASH. It is almost all crap, true or not.

Sure things are down a little FROM ONE OF THE BEST GAINS IN GDP IN DECADES. When I first saw the great Q4 numbers I said they would retrench some and the Republicans would try to make hay of that. Sure enough, right on cue.

Why now? Because things ARE getting better and they have only a small window to make these short sighted short term bogus comparisons.

When I was giving Zorro so much grief on Republican spin over much of the last decade calling him the Contrarian Indicator it was only partly in jest. The majority of it was valid. Almost like clockwork they would pre-emptively spin old news as good right before the new bad news came out.

They like to be free and loose with using averages and percentages because by selecting the comparison or what they average they can spin anything any way they want.

Now that government control has reversed they are doing the reverse. They are pre-emptively spinning all the bad news before good news or good comparisons are realized. It is so extreme and regular, you were able to count on it, it was tradable contrarian spin.

Case in point;

Right now they have Zorro confused to the point he thinks retail sales went down because "tax receipts" are down even after I showed him data they went up last quarter.

The con and spin is that they are talking about tax receipts for the year and the sales comparison were year over year. They have been spinning this one hard right now.

So why now?

The reason is that main cause of the YEARLY taxes being down and total sales are down with a year over year comparison is because the first quarter drop, Q1 '09, in retail sales was one of the worst quarters ever. So it makes it one of their "true lies" to ignore that sales have been improving since and using average over the year to distort the truth.

They have to do now because at the end of the month that horrible first quarter of last year drops out of the year over year comparison. And since that quarter was the worst the YOY case will turn extremely positive. Then of course they will turn to parsing the month to month and ignore YOY. One can bet on it.

Almost every statistic he sited has the same problem. Ohhh how horrible WEEKLY claims ticked up recently. Yet he ignores that a year ago we lost over 750,000 jobs a month in January and February and are likely losing only 20,000 now with last November being on the plus side. But we can't mention that because last year's devastation wasn't Obama's doing.

quote:

In my view, the best solution is a cost-free one: remove the uncertainties facing business, such as regulations, costs for health care, energy and the environment, not to mention what their own tax rates will be ( see Dec. 15 column).

You'd be surprised what this will do for hiring and thus for the economy.

In addition, the administration should use the funds that are left from last year's stimulus package to create jobs through tax breaks, direct hiring and gift cards ( see Nov. 10 column).

Finally, the regulators need to stop discouraging the banks from lending by overzealously scrutinizing their loans, reserves and capital.

????????

EVERYTHING he is advocating is EXACTLY what just failed and got us in the bad straights we are in right now. All of it. AND HE WANTS MORE IF IT!

After the "self regulating free market" investment banks ALL collapsed, are gone, and darn near took the whole country down with it without a taxpayer bailout of government largess he now wants LESS regulation of banks? Is he nuts???

Health care costs doubled under Bush with the help of greater anti trust exemption for insurance companies and he thinks health care reform is the problem? Why does he think companies have any certainty of the costs now?

Last years $140 a barrel oil gave better certainty of energy costs? Can he really think that?

Our taxes are some of the lowest in 100 years and he wants tax cuts claiming taxes are the problem? The low taxes for the rich really got us booming right? Been trickled on yet?

And screw the environment if you can make a buck, right?

This kind of Republican dogma and lies really pisses me off. (As if I had to say that)

quote:

Do I hear any better ideas?

Yes, do the opposite of what he advocates.

And if you want to make a buck: If the Righties are doing this kind of negative squawking it means they suspect good news is about to come out. And in terms of the YOY comparisons, they are currently making, after the end of this quarter, this month, the good YOY numbers are relatively assured.

But watch the hypocrites flip flop next month and claim the YOY numbers are meaningless and all that matters is what happened last week or month.
They are stupidly predictable.

quote:

I've not ruled out COP by any means. My preference for XOM is because Warren Buffet dumped a huge amount of it, so there is a chance the Buffet copycats will drive its price down for a while.

Buffet dumped large amounts of COP as well.

quote:

Buffet dumped large amounts of COP as well.—Doug

True, but COP kept going up and I rarely buy a stock that's rising. I notice it was down a bit today, perhaps it will have a sinking spell like XOM.
Seán

Is this what has the Republicans working so hard to talk down America?

First spark of a jobs recovery on Main Street

quote:

Is this what has the Republicans working so hard to talk down America?—Doug

Doug,
     My guess is the Republicans are trying to gather the support of voters for the next election. I don't care a lot; what matters is that there is a recovery underway. The economy is improving more slowly than I'd like, but it is improving. There must be a pent-up demand for goods because of unemployment. However, providing the goods to meet that demand will result in hirings, so unemployment will decrease.
     The main thing that troubles me is our great national indebtedness. It is supportable at low interest rates, but when inflation makes those rates go up we may be in a heap of trouble.
Seán

quote:

Doug,
My guess is the Republicans are trying to gather the support of voters for the next election.

No doubt. That is all they do all the time. They need to be in power to profit as much as they can off the government. So it is all about regaining power.

quote:

I don't care a lot; what matters is that there is a recovery underway.

I think it matters a lot. Policy matters. I have no doubt that if Glass-Steagal hadn't been weakened and then essentially eliminated we wouldn't have had the same financial crisis. We were ripped off by deregulation.

But it matters to us how we listen to what the Wall Streeters are saying. We must filter out what they are saying that is not fair assessment but rather promoting what they consider to be in their best interests which is often not in our best interests.

quote:

...Wall Streeters are...promoting what they consider to be in their best interests which is often not in our best interests.—BullDoug

     Hear, hear! To navigate the creek successfully one's personal paddle is essential. The year past was very good to me and this one is looking rosy. But I suspect the time has come to lock in some profits.
Seán

     What I'm saying is things are looking just a bit too good. Remember the old adage: Prat goeth before a fall.
Seán

Triple Witching on Friday.

I have noticed in the last couple of years the Friday the week before triple witch stocks tend to move at the close. We spiked big time in the last hour last trading day. I think there was a lot of short covering. Previously they would wait longer. But I think there are a lot of novice traders who in the last year are confusing talent with a historic crash and then the greatest bull market in 75 years.

I know options in some stocks were heavily traded.

Bigger picture, I thought we closed last year a little high. But now almost three months later, data keeps improving, and only 20 S&P points higher I am more comfortable.

quote:

But I suspect the time has come to lock in some profits.
Seán

I reiterate my comment to use stop losses to sell and let the market back in to you for a sell if it may, to allow the upside to ride if it might.

I still think it is likely before the year end to see a blowout quarter to the upside that could push us too high but we haven't seen that yet.

And I want to be all in if that happens. Although I haven't had that dip to put recent cash to work.

Looks like a typical short squeeze starting last Friday. It may have peaked today as we backtracked from the highs.

I saw an interesting term today, they were calling it "Buying Capitulation".

They said as the market was continuing to go up the money waiting on the sidelines was being forced in to the market as institutions can't stand to be seen underperforming by sitting on cash.

And individuals were reacting somewhat the same way. Money flows this week will be interesting to see.

And yet last week bond fund inflows are still outpacing stock funds by 3 to 4 times. But much more is going to the US than emerging markets, the reverse of earlier.

When/if that the bond inflows decline, stocks might soar. But it is not happening yet.

It is pretty clear the recession is over.
Seán