Where’s the beef?

I don’t think there’s any body back there.

Just a short FYI that within about the next 4 - 6 months it appears there could be the start of a beef shortage.
So it wouldn’t hurt to fill your freezer early and possibly adjust your portfolio accordingly if you are invested in beef related stocks.
Pawn

FYI: Hot off the wire:
Looks like things are happening faster then I thought.

quote:

Smaller supply, better demand lift beef prices.
* Beef companies, cattle producers profitable
* Profits follow years of losses (Corrects beef price in second paragraph to $163)
By Bob Burgdorfer
CHICAGO, March 25 (Reuters) - U.S. beef prices have surged this month due to tight supplies, strong exports, and an uptick in restaurant business, producing badly needed profits for U.S. beef companies and cattle producers.
The wholesale price for choice-grade beef, which is often served in restaurants, is the highest in nearly two years at $163 per hundredweight.
"The supply side is so tight that any inkling of demand improvement sends prices higher," said Jim Robb, economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
This has been good news for beef companies like Tyson Foods Inc (#HYPERLINK "/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=TSN.N"TSN.N), Cargill Inc CARG.UL, JBS-USA (#HYPERLINK "/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=JBSS3.SA"JBSS3.SA) and National Beef Packing Co.

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article...325?type=marketsNews

Moran introduces legislation to increase market access for U.S. beef in China

quote:

McPherson Sentinel - ‎6 hours ago‎
Washington, D.C. —
Congressman Jerry Moran (R-KS) and Congressman Roy Blunt (R-MO) recently introduced a resolution to support increased market access for exports of U.S. beef and beef products to Japan. Currently, Japan restricts access to a large number of U.S. beef products. H. Res. 1196 states that Japan should immediately expand market access for U.S. beef products, and urges the Obama Administration to insist on increased market access from Japan. U.S. Senator Mike Johanns (R-NE) has introduced similar legislation in the U.S. Senate.

Source: http://www.mcphersonsentinel.c...or-U-S-beef-in-China

And couple that with a small calf crop this year and it could get real interesting.
Pawn

Pawn,
But Fat Albert Gore says beef give off gas (Al Gore doesn't?), so beef owners must pay Gore's phony "carbon credits."

I don't know how phony charlatan Fat Albert plans to make his idea the LAW.

-T

quote:
The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) 'Cattle' inventory report, published on January 29 2010, put the US national herd at a 52-year low of 93.7mn head as of January 1 2010. The 2009 calf crop was down by 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) at 35.8mn head while the number of beef replacement heifers fell by 2% y-o-y to
5.4mn.
Snip
2010 also promises improved returns for the beleaguered US dairy industry. With milk production down y-o-y, supply restrictions pushed up prices

Do you see that: “the US national herd at a 52-year low “!!!!
Source: http://www.officialwire.com/ma...rid=119043&catid=107

Re: If you want to know what is really causing this high mortality rate in cattle.
Well as no one seems to give a flip. I will give it to you anyway!
In 3 words!
CORN GLUTEN and GOSSYPOL
And please note that corn gluten comes from the manufacturing of ETHANOL.
Yes folks, ETHANOL production is poisoning your meat and milk supply, while at the same time is causing prices to skyrocket!

Now do your own research and try to prove me wrong!
Pawn

Here is my evidence.
http://www.thebeefsite.com/art...-beef-cattlesup1-sup
http://pubs.ext.vt.edu/news/li.../LU_10_01_09-04.html
http://www.thebeefsite.com/art...feed-for-beef-cattle
http://www.merckvetmanual.com/...le=htm/bc/211200.htm
http://www.cattlenetwork.com/C...icle.aspx?oid=701557

sufacts.okstate.edu/docushare/dsweb/Get/Document-1952/VTMD-9116.pdf+gossypol+toxicity&hl=en&gl=us&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEEShwNEY_hghMb00Cww0Fk22loEzd6AK2lWpgUslBggR1d4SYIEQnFIiuMyGj5pFFyH3BWyS6vdPH8mJOcbwH9LjzNg7LhNNHISecKMjmrm-jXa_WkKIzwS-sZoIz8tCTJCeBXwV0&sig=AHIEtbQGxV42yIUGNOqBdey49cVFMiRvPQ" target="_blank">http://docs.google.com/viewer?...UGNOqBdey49cVFMiRvPQ

http://pods.dasnr.okstate.edu/...t-1952/VTMD-9116.pdf

http://docs.google.com/viewer?...ieNaZ0wD7RwbFdT20SLw

FYI:

The Associated Press May 27, 2010, 6:19AM ET

quote:

British sugar refiner Tate & Lyle PLC says it won't restart construction of an ethanol plant in Fort Dodge, Iowa in the foreseeable future.
Tate & Lyle, which also produces bulk ingredients, said Thursday that it had written off a loss of 217 million pounds ($316 million) on the project.
Work on the plant has been suspended since March of last year.
Tate & Lyle says its decision was based on the depressed and volatile outlook for ethanol and uncertain conditions in industrial starch and corn gluten feed markets.

“ decision was based on the depressed and volatile outlook for ethanol “
“ uncertain conditions in industrial “ “corn gluten feed markets “.
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/ap...alnews/D9FV4EC81.htm

Also see: http://www.news.iastate.edu/ne...010/jan/PersiaHansen

Warning: Get cash for your cattle!
Eastern owes $130 million to cattle sellers
(11/24/2010) 
The Grain Inspection, Packers & Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) has filed a complaint charging Eastern Livestock Co. LLC and its owner, Thomas P. Gibson, with failure to pay for livestock purchases and failure to maintain an adequate bond.
GIPSA said it currently estimates that Eastern owes more than $130 million to 743 cattle sellers in 30 states and has documented $81 million in returned checks.
GIPSA added that it is on site at Eastern's headquarters assessing the situation and investigating possible violations of the Packers & Stockyards Act.
Eastern, headquartered in New Albany, Ind., is one of the largest cattle brokers in the U.S., with operations in 11 states across the mid-South, Midwest and West.
Source: http://www.feedstuffs.com/ME2/...4E61BAC11CDBCC87CA42

UPDATE:
A 500lb steer that sold for $1.24/ LB this time last year is now selling for $151.00/ LB.
Supply is continuing to go down due to an ever escalating mortality rate, which is also causing some cattlemen/backgrounders/feedlots to go out of business.

There is no relief in sight for higher beef prices for at least the next 2 years.
Beef prices will continue to climb.
Pawn

quote:

due to an ever escalating mortality rate

quote:

There is no relief in sight for higher beef prices for at least the next 2 years.
Beef prices will continue to climb.

I hear most that it is about the multi-year drought than anything else.

Which also has destroyed crops raising prices for feed grade corn and the farmers won't have their silage for the winter feeding.

Here we have had an ususual damp and cooler summer until recently and I saw where farmers in Texas were shipping some of their cattle north, our way. They are hoping to use them to rebuild their herds when conditions in the south improve.

I too expect higher beef prices for at least a year.

North Texas E-News

Sept. 9, 2011

“All cattle and calves in the United States and Canada combined totaled 113.9 million head on July 1, 2011, down 1 percent from the 115.1 million on July 1, 2010. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 45.8 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago.

All cattle and calves in the United States as of July 1, 2011, totaled 100.0 million head, 1 percent below the 101.1 million on July 1, 2010. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 40.6 million head, were down 1 percent from a year ago.

All cattle and calves in Canada as of July 1, 2011, totaled 13.9 million head, down 1 percent from the 14.0 million on July 1, 2010. All cows and heifers that have calved, at 5.18 million, were down 2 percent from a year ago.”

FYI:

quote:

Sep 10, 2011
E coli 0157:117 It’s what’s for Dinner?
Research at the USDA’s ARS Meat Animal Research Center in Clay Center, Nebraska, has found that the incidence of the deadly E coli 0157:117 was significantly higher in cattle whose corn-based feed included 40% wet distillers grains (WDG). WDG is a byproduct of ethanol manufacturing that is often fed to feed-lot Beef and dairy animals throughout the United States but primarily in the upper Midwest. Some cattle producers had originally thought that the absence of starch in WGD would make it safer to use than corn with ruminants like cattle. Apparently this is not the case.

quote:

What is E. Coli 0157:117 ?
E. Coli 0157:147 has emerged as a major cause of both sporadic cases and outbreak cases of diarrhea in North America.
The first report described outbreaks of gastroenteritis that were associated with the consumption of undercooked ground beef from a
chain of fast food restaurants.
Since this report, several studies have shown that infection with E. Coli 0157:147 is responsible for most cases of Hemolytic-Uremic
Syndrome, which is a major cause of renal failure in children. In addition, we now know E. Coli 0157:147 is a major cause of bloody
and non-bloody diarrhea in children.
In the United States E. Coli 0157:147 is estimated to cause more than 20,000 infections and as many as 250 deaths per year.
The combination of letters and numbers in the specification refers to specific markers found on its surface and distinguishes it from other types of E. Coli.