Recovery Indications -- housing.


Mortgage delinquencies hit record-high in 3Q
By ALAN ZIBEL (AP) – 3 hours ago

quote:

WASHINGTON — More than 14 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September, a record-high for the ninth straight quarter and a problem that could threaten the economic recovery.
The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday adds to fears that the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages.

FYI, it is a proven fact that the housing sector is almost always the last sector to recover from an economic recovery/recession.
IMO housing related stocks should only be considered for long term ( 5 + years ) investment.
You can buy now at depressed prices but don’t expect any return for at least 5 years.
Pawn

BisinessWeek

quote:

updated 11:00 p.m. ET, Wed., Nov . 18, 2009
U.S. stocks closed lower Wednesday as traders decided to take some profits from 2009's substantial equity advance amid some disappointing news on the housing sector. The pullback followed the market's recent rally to 13-month highs.
a surprise 10.6% drop in October housing starts and a 4% drop in building permits raised questions about the strength of the economic recovery.
Also, the U.S. consumer price index [CPI] rose 0.3% in October

???????????????? What “ economic recovery”?

Everything that’s up, should be down and everything that is down should be up. ( thank you fat Albert ) What economic recovery?
Pawn

Pawnie,

It is good to have you back. It used to be I could count on Zorro when Bush was president to provide the types of spin I am seeing from you which I very successfully could use as a contrary indicator.


The righties like to push a contrary spin right before data comes out to try to spin away news they don't want to be true.

quote:

a surprise 10.6% drop in October housing starts and a 4% drop in building permits raised questions about the strength of the economic recovery.

Building is up from January. Up for the year, we were up 21%. Last few months had large increases. Some correction month to month would be expected as a result. Not to mention we are heading in to winter in a weak economy.

quote:

???????????????? What “ economic recovery”?

I am very pleased they are still building, we are up for the year, and the remaining builders are staying alive.

With some inside knowledge of the building industry and having property for development for sale, permits in place, I am pleased builders are selling their inventory, albeit slowly.

Like homeowners underwater on their mortgages so are builders with property. But worse, with loans for development property being current on a loan is not enough. Most commercial loans have the right to require additional collateral should the value drop. This has been a huge drag on, and risk for, builders. They can get foreclosed upon even if current because of this.

Therefore if they can build and remove any property which they have purchased, it eliminates a portion of that cost, liability, and the need to put up additional collateral, making them healthier.

"Healthier" would be a part of recovering.

Bull,
Re:

quote:

It is good to have you back. It used to be I could count on Zorro when Bush was president to provide the types of spin I am seeing from you which I very successfully could use as a contrary indicator.

Well I’m glade to know I’m in your psychological demographic profile, but I would hardly call the AP clip “spin” by me. If it’s “spin” then you only have the AP to credit for those “FACTS”.
Of course if you are referring to my “fat Albert” comment, that’s just my dry humor coming through.
What can I say, I found that one extremely funny as I did with “read my lips no new taxes”.

Pawn

Reviewing some posts I ran across this I thought needed a response.

quote:

Well I’m glade to know I’m in your psychological demographic profile, but I would hardly call the AP clip “spin” by me. If it’s “spin” then you only have the AP to credit for those “FACTS”.

Pawn,
- I didn't exactly mean to credit you with the spin since indeed you didn't write it. But like Tuesday you are claiming no responsibility for what you choose to post. Do you really believe that? You just post blindly? Nobody else believes that.

And no, I don't even credit AP with the spin. I credit their sources that provide them with the information with I have little doubt comes from the Republicans or the White House. The pattern of Righties spinning the opposite of the reality just before the bad news comes out is consistant enough to be tradeable.

Bull,
I think this says it all!
Pawn

quote:

Updated March 23, 2010
Fox News Poll: 79% Say U.S. Economy Could Collapse
By Dana Blanton
- FOXNews.com
The latest Fox News poll finds that 79 percent of voters think it’s possible the economy could collapse, including large majorities of Democrats (72 percent), Republicans (84 percent) and independents (80 percent).

Source: http://www.foxnews.com/politic...ay-economy-collapse/

quote:

U.S. Economy: Sales of Existing Homes Decrease, Supply Climbs
March 23, 2010, 12:51 PM EDT
By Shobhana Chandra
March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing U.S. homes fell in February for a third month, and the number of properties on the market climbed by the most in almost two years, casting a pall over the prospects for a recovery.

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-23/u-s-economy-sales-of-existing-homes-decrease-supply-climbs.html