In elections, jobless trend matters more than rate


WASHINGTON (AP) — Unemployment is higher than it's been going into any election year since World War II.

But history shows that won't necessarily stop President Barack Obama from reclaiming the White House.

In a presidential election year, the unemployment trend can be more important to an incumbent's chances than the unemployment rate.

Going back to 1956 no incumbent president has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to the election. And none has won when it rose.
---
Those precedents bode well for Obama.


More at Source

quote:

The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell for the fourth straight week to 375,000 _ the lowest level since June 2008.

source

I find it very encouraging that hiring is now at a level that can be self sustaining. A "virtuous cycle" where hiring begets more spendiing and more hiring.

quote:

Going back to 1956 no incumbent president has lost when unemployment fell over the two years leading up to the election

What is that a sample size of, 10? Pretty small. Further this assumes that folks are satisfied with the direction of the country. Currently 80% are NOT satisfied with the direction. So it depends on how much that changes between now and election day. If the economy improves, doesn't Obama's "I couldn't fix it, because of the GOP" start to look pretty stupid?

quote:

Further this assumes that folks are satisfied with the direction of the country.

Says who?

You didn't read it. That makes your comment ignorant.

quote:

"I couldn't fix it, because of the GOP"

Naw, it is "Things coulda been better if not for the GOP!".

I'm getting a little weary of Romney's nonsense about 'envy'. It sounds like a schoolyard taunt: "You're just jealous, nyah, nyah, nyah!"
What an idiot. Same for the Repukes who buy that .

quote:

'envy'

The entire case for Obama's re-election is based on stirring up envy. Romney is absolutely correct on this point.

Fairness and envy are not the same.

quote:

Originally posted by Zorro:

quote:

'envy'

The entire case for Obama's re-election is based on stirring up envy. Romney is absolutely correct on this point.

Yeah, Comrade Newt Gingrich and Comrade Rick Perry are helping a lot.

Vulture capitalism.


....All.your........Base.........are.belong....to..us....

I don't quite understand what your complaint is anyway, zorro, since you've already stated that you expect to see Obama re-elected.

quote:

Yeah, Comrade Newt Gingrich and Comrade Rick Perry are helping a lot.

They have a right to their views. I'm not as familiar with Perry's take, but Gingrich is hitting him from the Left. If Romney has a glass jaw, now is the tme find out. So Newt, Step in to it, let's see what the boy has.

quote:

I don't quite understand what your complaint is anyway, zorro, since you've already stated that you expect to see Obama re-elected.

Complainin? Moi' I laugh! I Laugh some more! I laugh even louder!

The Sitting President starts at 67% odds of re-election.
Obama is vastly underperforming this at 50.6%, but that should enough to get by with a squeaker. Which is fine, but if its a squeaker you will likely lose the Senate and fail to recapture the House.

quote:

Originally posted by Zorro:

quote:

Yeah, Comrade Newt Gingrich and Comrade Rick Perry are helping a lot.

They have a right to their views. I'm not as familiar with Perry's take, but Gingrich is hitting him from the Left. If Romney has a glass jaw, now is the tme find out. So Newt, Step in to it, let's see what the boy has.

Be careful what you wish for...

quote:

Yeah, Comrade Newt Gingrich and Comrade Rick Perry are helping a lot.

Rick Perry who?

Sweet

quote:

Employment trend matters more than rate, favors Obama reelection

Sweeeet.

With the unemployment rate falling significantly over the last three months the trend is strong.

I found this REALLY encouraging

quote:

Factory workers put in an average 41.9 hours of work each week, the most since January 1998, while overtime hours climbed to the highest since March 2007.

That is just great stuff.
http://www.americanthinker.com...3.html#ixzz1lMsKpUag

If unemployment falls below 8%, Obama wins by a landslide - with coat tails.

That doesn't count all the people that have quit looking for work. Remember, Doug?

quote:

Originally posted by Victor Laszlo:
That doesn't count all the people that have quit looking for work. Remember, Doug?

I know that so what is your point?

It is a high enough hiring rate to be above self sustaining and to where it becomes a "virtuous cycle" or also called a positive feedback loop.

A million new jobs in a little over every four months will generate more demand and more jobs.

It is almost a million jobs a month positive difference between Bush's last month and Obama now. That's huge.

oh lawd .. spare us from these hawkers of doom and gloom .. who pine for true catastrophy amongst us to further their purely political ends .. strike them mute and deliver us to a liberal dose of optimism across these lands .. make that which issues from their mouths less like that which issues from their asses .. and bless us so ..forthwith .. both today and tomorrow ..too [also]

oh lawd .. we ax these things in the name of thy son .. jeeezus ..grant our prayer and deliver us from these evil voices which surround us with gleeful dreams of vexing woe ..

a-men ..

quote:

It is a high enough hiring rate to be above self sustaining and to where it becomes a "virtuous cycle" or also called a positive feedback loop.

I agree.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

In the last 6 months we have averaged 173,000/mo.

We need about 90,000/mo to keep up with population growth

http://www.calculatedriskblog....-over-next-year.html

So we are finally, starting to eat into the number of unemployed. It is also true that this 83k/mo is not what is causing the big drops in the rate. Labor participation rate dropped to a new all time low and as another pointed out, over a million left the labor force last month. That is large part of the drop, but the net new jobs certainly helped as well.

I hope it keeps going. The stock market sure rallied in Jan. Clearly the smart money believes stocks are cheaper now than they will be later in the year. Once again, I hope they are right.

quote:

I know that so what is your point?

It is a high enough hiring rate to be above self sustaining and to where it becomes a "virtuous cycle" or also called a positive feedback loop.

A million new jobs in a little over every four months will generate more demand and more jobs.

It is almost a million jobs a month positive difference between Bush's last month and Obama now. That's huge.

My point is that if a republican was in the WH, that's what you would be pimping.

I see.

What you are saying is that is what YOU are pimping.

Because there is a Democrat in the White House and you think that is what I would do if the situation was reversed.

And if you paid attention you would realize the topic was about the employment trend and not current rate or level.

Unlike Righties like you, I try to be fair.

quote:

Unlike Righties like you, I try to be fair.

If the positive trend continues, most people will find the unemployment rate acceptable - whatever it turns out to be. If it works it way below where Obama started at 7.6%, it's a landslide.

quote:

Originally posted by Victor Laszlo:

quote:

Unlike Righties like you, I try to be fair.

Righties seem to always need their strawmen out of some desire to attempt to excuse their own bad behavior.

Too bad your's appears to have fallen and can't get up.

quote:

Righties seem to always need their strawmen out of some desire to attempt to excuse their own bad behavior.

I'm an evil person by nature.