There is legitimate concern that a deadly strain of a bird flu virus may mutate so it becomes transmissible directly between humans. If that should happen, a pandemic like the one in 1918 might result, with fatalities numbering in the millions. The H5N1 virus, currently confined to Asia, is a candidate.
     As is to be expected, the news media is playing up the possibility to the hilt. Actually, no such mutation has occurred; the disease can only be transmitted to humans from infected birds, so the main present risk is to poultry workers.
Sean —

     Flu shots are available already. This link, tells where you can get one. Just click the link, type in your ZIP code and presto, the American Lung Association will provide a list of sources!
Sean

     The H5N1 bird flu virus that is deadly to humans has been confirmed in Turkey; the report that it is in Romania as well has yet to be confirmed.
Sean

This is getting very scary. Any suggestions as to how to protect yourself if it comes our way?

Koka,
     There is no effective vaccine against the H5N1 bird flu virus. An anti-viral medication, Tamiflu, is effective but is expected to be in very short supply.
     Remember, the disease transmits only from birds to humans, so there is little present danger to persons not involved in handling birds. If the virus mutates so that it can move directly between humans, we're in dreadful trouble. If that occurs, I plan to lay in a large supply of food at once and avoid all human contact until the epidemic ends.
     For the present, I'll just be watchful, checking daily on the news from CDC. If the situation changes, I'll post it here, and that's a promise. As of now my main concern is that the media will sensationalize the news, frightening folk unnecessarily.
Sean

You are thinking along the same lines as I am, Sean. Stocking up on food supplies, etc. and laying low. I don't worry so much for us up here in Colo. as I do my family in San Antonio who face huge crowds of people on a daily basis. Anyway, I'll be watching your posts.

     When I say there is no vaccine for Avian H5N1 flu, I mean none is available. There is a vaccine now being tested but it won't be ready for use during the current season.
Sean

     An AP story just released describes a Vietnamese girl to whom the H5N1 strain of avian flu was transmitted directly from her brother rather than by contact with birds. To make bad more dismal, the strain she caught was Tamiflu resistant. It did respond to Relenza, another antiviral drug, and she has recovered.
     For H5N1 to be transmitted directly from one person to another, it must undergo mutation. Mutation happens when a patient is infected simultaneously by two viruses, one of which already can be transmitted between humans. By exchanging DNA the other virus picks up the ability to move directly between people, making it a major menace. In the case I mentioned, the virus is apparently contained, but there will probably be other mutants.
Sean

     I'm sorry to report bird flu virus H5N1 has been confirmed in Romania. The European Commission has banned all imports of live poultry from both Turkey and Romania.
Sean

The European Commission has now banned imports of all poultry products from Turkey and Romania.
Sean

     The World Health Organization (WHO) has outlined strategies for avoiding an avian flu pandemic.
     Frankly, this 22-page .pdf file demands fairly heavy reading and offers little that isn't obvious.
Sean

     Russia has reported H5N1 avian flu in birds at a point 125 miles south of Moscow. That is in European Russia. No human cases have been seen. H5N1 has been endemic in the Asian part of Russia for several years.
     The carriers are migrating wild birds. Many of those birds will be moving on to Northern Africa, fleeing from the European winter. Public health services are limited in Africa and the opportunities for cross-species infection are enhanced by the agrarian lifestyles of the people. Cross-species infection is what gives rise to mutations of the kind that let flu viruses pass directly from one human to another. I'll be especially alert for flu news coming out of Africa.
Sean

     An October 19th report from the European Centre for Disease Control claims the risk of contracting bird flu of the H5N1 type is extremely low. The reasoning is that chances for exposure are rare and that infections seldom happen even when people are in contact with infected birds. Moreover, transmissions of the virus between humans has not been demonstrated, even though millions of Asians have been exposed to bird-infected humans during the past five years.
     The meat of this report is found on pages seven and eight, if you'd like to spare yourself some dreary reading.
     Of course, all bets are canceled if H5N1 mutates into a form that transmits easily between humans. I suppose that is a bridge we'll have to cross if ever we come to it.
Sean

     I had not considered the bad effect the bird flu scare would have on the Poultry Business. The link is to an article from Bloomberg describing Grecian avoidance of poultry products because of one sick turkey that may not have even been infected by H5N1!
     Today I've seen several stories of the kind; European farmers will be losing billions because of panic inspired boycotts, not to mention governmental extermination of flocks exposed to flu.
     For the record it is safe to eat infected birds if they've been cooked properly. However, you can safely bet the farm that I wouldn't do it knowingly.
Sean

I'm getting my flu shot in the morning. It's for the regular virus not the bird flu, so I'm wondering if how the physican's etc will handle a new vaccine (if and when it arrives)? Anyone know if we'll have a shot for the bird flu or if taking the one offered now will interfer?

Libby,
     Getting the regular flu shot is an excellent idea but it will not protect against the bird flu (H5N1). Several vaccines for bird flu are being developed. However, they all are in the testing stage and can't possibly be mass-produced for at least a year. Even then there is no knowing if they will work on whatever strain of virus is active at that time.
     The important thing to remember is there is very little danger of contracting bird flu until it mutates into a form that is easily transmissible between humans. According to the experts that has not happened yet (and it may never happen). If it does, I will post it here as soon as I learn about it.
     Meanwhile, the media is apt to exaggerate the risks as a way of enticing readers. I suppose there's no hope of avoiding that.
Sean

I worry more about transmitting the avian virus to my little guy after touching a doornknob than I about getting it myself.

I'm wondering if we should stop kissing him (closed-beak and mouth kissing--no tongues) until this blows over.

Winkin Noddin,
     Unless you are involved with poultry or wild birds, the chance of exposing yourself to bird flu is negligible. Doorknobs can't transmit the virus to you even if they've been touched by some person with bird flu. Ordinary flu is different; doorknobs can transmit it. Your bird need not worry though; birds don't catch human flu.
     By all means continue your chaste kissing.
Sean

     The World Health Organization (WHO) updated its assessment of the bird flu situation as of yesterday (Oct 25, 2005).
     In brief, they have concluded that bird infections in several Asian countries are endemic and virtually ineradicable. There are clear indications of its spread to mammals, including humans, but at a rate that's very low. Thus far the key factor for creating a pandemic--direct transmission between humans--has not yet appeared.
     I hope we can develop some defense against infection before that critical mutation happens! Ominously, the bibliography at the end of the WHO article cites an experiment indicating that bird flu (virus H5N1) can be transmitted directly from cat-to-cat.
Sean

     Plain old human flu, not bird flu, is sure to flourish later on this year. Now the CDC informs us that the vaccine will be plentiful this year.
     While I've read the shots confer only 29% protection to old geezers, that is better, far, than none--I vote for getting one as soon as possible. I'd feel really foolish it I were one of the 36,000 who will go to their rewards this year, should my passing be the result of sheer procrastination.
Sean

     Flu news has been scant this week so I'll post a note about how bird flu viruses are named. They are called Type A for "avian" because wild birds are the natural hosts. There are many strains of Type A virus, distinguishable by two kinds of proteins on the viral surfaces. One family of these proteins is called the Hemagglutinins and there are at least 16 of them; the other family of proteins, named Neuramidases, are nine in number.
     Since an avian (A-type) virus can have any one of the sixteen hemagglutinins and any one of the nine neuroamidases, there are many subtypes of A virus. The one most threatining to humans, at the moment, is Type A(H5N1). From the name we can see it is an Avian virus bearing the Hemagglutinin 5 and Neuraminidase 1 varieties of surface proteins. Simple, really.
Sean

Listening on Air America today to a bird-flu expert. He mentioned that Tamiflu is being administered indiscriminantly in some areas and that they've found resistant strains of the virus already. His fear is that, if becomes more available, people will start stockpiling it and taking it when they don't really need it, and something like MRSA could occur, only in virus form, rendering the Tamiflu useless, as Methacillin has been rendered useless against certain strains of Staph Aureus.

The indiscriminate use of antibiotics and antivirals is a serious public health threat looming on the horizon. Doctors are getting the word, finally, but the general public isn't well-enough educated.

On another note...I heard on the news tonite that our state is already facing a shortage of flu vaccine, despite the fact that the CDC says there's plenty to go around.

What's up with that?

quote:

Originally posted by winkin noddin:
I worry more about transmitting the avian virus to my little guy after touching a doornknob than I about getting it myself.

I'm wondering if we should stop kissing him (closed-beak and mouth kissing--no tongues) until this blows over.

Whew! For a minute there, I thought you were talking about Zooey!

quote:

"I heard on the news tonite that our state is already facing a shortage of flu vaccine, despite the fact that the CDC says there's plenty to go around."--Winkin Noddin

     Adequate supplies of vaccine have been ordered but deliveries are slow, especially for small orders for doctor's offices and the like. Thus far scheduled immunization clinics have met demand by borrowing vaccines from one another.
     One delaying factor is Chiron, which 19 million doses behind in its deliveries for reasons not yet specified. Interestingly the "for-profit clinics" at drug stores, Costco and the like have vaccine aplenty at $25 a crack. That's where I went. The real cost of a shot is about $11 but I thought the extra $14 for vigorish was cheap, considering the earlier protection. My HMO, as usual, has dragged its little feet. The latest word from there is that a supply of vaccine will be available in about a month, at which time clinics will be announced. I sneeze on that do-less institution!
Sean

     If you get an e-mail purporting th give help with, or information about, bird flu, be wary. It may contain a computer virus. This ploy will probably become quite popular among computer criminals: Fear can make a person foolish.
Sean