quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
During week 49 (December 6-12, 2009), influenza activity continued to decrease in the U.S.

That is the second wave of infection with the first being in the spring. I heard them questioning yesterday if there might be a third wave. They are hoping getting more people innoculated may prevent a third rise in activity.

But as we were talking about earlier there is a tipping point at which the infection starts to die out.

Report 79 from WHO says "As of 13 December 2009, worldwide more than 208 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 10582 deaths...In United States and Canada, active influenza transmission persists but overall levels of ILI (influenza-like illness) have declined substantially to near seasonal baselines."

    The flu map included in the CDC update for week 50 shows diminishing incidence for most states. Guam and Nebraska report no flu at all.
    According to the eightieth WHO report on 23 December 2009 the worldwide H1N1 flu death toll has been at least 11,516.
Seán

Sean,

You may be interested in "The Great Influenza" by John Barry.

Very good book covering the pandemic of 1918-19. Same flu I think.

Peachy

Peachy,
     I have ordered the book. Estimated delivery Jan. 13.
     This Sunday, midmorning, I visited my favorite pharmacy to replace a tube of Crest that I could squeeze no flatter. A notice taped to the door suggested I inquire about H1N1 vaccine, so I did, and sure enough they had some. Dressed as I was for hard winter weather, I hesitated because an injection in my left deltoid would require a significant amount of stripping and the pharmacist is female.
     She told me there was not a problem, so I took off a few layers covering my upper torso, revealing the real me. Either she was unimpressed or she concealed her feelings very well.
Seán

The CDC update for week 51 (December 20-26, 2009) says four states reported geographically widespread influenza activity, 13 states reported regional influenza activity, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and 19 states reported local influenza activity, Guam and 13 states reported sporadic influenza activity, and Nebraska reported no influenza activity, the U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

The WHO Update #81, for 27 December 2009, confirms at least 12220 deaths from H1N1 during 2009.

Overall flu activity in the United States decreased slightly during week 52 (December 27, 2009-January 2, 2010}. Though flu activity, caused by either 2009 H1N1 or seasonal flu viruses, may rise and fall, it is expected to continue for several more months.

WHO Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 update 82: As of 3 January 2009, worldwide more than 208 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 12799 deaths. The most active areas of pandemic influenza transmission currently are in parts of central, eastern and southeastern Europe, North Africa, and South Asia.

Peachy,
     "The Great Influenza" by John Barry (Viking, 2004) arrived early and I have already read the book. It includes information about the 1918 epidemic that I had not heard before; the things I know about are accurately presented. My paternal grandparents, he from Texas and she from Tennessee, sometimes talked about it, and their accounts were much less dramatic than is Barry's. Probably they lived in areas that were less affected than states farther to the north.
     In his summation he predicts a resurgent pandemic, and we have been experiencing one since summer 2009. Fortunately, the virus is far less deadly now than it was in 1918, because it went global before vaccine became available. The virus could mutate to a greater virulence at any time, so we are still in danger, even though the rate of infection is diminishing. Being vaccinated helps because people who are immune can't spread the disease to others.
Seán

The CDC H1N1 update for Week 1 ending January 9, 2010 shows influenza activity continued to decrease in the U.S. The U.S. Virgin Islands, Nebraska and Wyoming reported no influenza activity.

WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) update 83 as of 10 January 2010, reports worldwide more than 208 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 13554 deaths.

The CDC H1N1 update for week 2 (January 10-16, 2010) shows influenza activity decreased slightly in the United States. No states reported widespread influenza activity, seven states reported regional influenza activity, Puerto Rico, and 10 states reported local influenza activity, the District of Columbia, Guam, and 32 states reported sporadic influenza activity, and the U.S. Virgin Islands and Nebraska reported no influenza activity

WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update #84 counts, as of 17 January 2010, at least 14142 deaths worldwide attributable to H1N1 2009.

The CDC update for Week 3, ending January 23, 2010, reports

• No states reported widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity was reported by five states (Alabama, Georgia, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Virginia).
  
• Local influenza activity was reported by Puerto Rico and nine states (Hawaii, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, and Utah).
  
• Sporadic influenza activity was reported by the District of Columbia, Guam, and 33 states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Texas, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands, Idaho, Nebraska, and Oregon report no influenza activity.

WHO Pandemic weekly update #85: As of 24 January 2010, worldwide more than 209 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 14711 deaths.

     The CDC update for Week 4 reports:
During week 4 (January 24-30, 2010), influenza activity remained at approximately the same levels as last week in the U.S.

• 119 (3.2%) specimens tested by U.S. World Health Organization (WHO) and National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) collaborating laboratories and reported to CDC/Influenza Division were positive for influenza.
  
• All subtyped influenza A viruses reported to CDC were 2009 influenza A (H1N1) viruses.
  
• The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was above the epidemic threshold.
  
• Nine influenza-associated pediatric deaths were reported. Eight deaths were associated with 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus infection and one was associated with an influenza A virus for which the subtype was undetermined.
  
• The proportion of outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) was 1.9% which is below the national baseline of 2.3%. All regions reported ILI below their region-specific baseline.
  
• No states reported widespread influenza activity, six states reported regional influenza activity, Puerto Rico and 10 states reported local influenza activity, the District of Columbia, Guam, and 31 states reported sporadic influenza activity. The U.S. Virgin Islands, Idaho, Montana, and Nebraska reported no influenza activity.

     WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 86 on 5 February 2010 states: As of 31 January 2010, worldwide more than 209 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 15174 deaths.
Seán

The CDC update for week 5 (January 31-February 6, 2010), says influenza activity remained at approximately the same levels as last week in the U.S.

• No states reported widespread influenza activity.
  ◦Regional influenza activity was reported by six states (Alabama, Georgia, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Carolina).
  
• Local influenza activity was reported by Puerto Rico and 11 states (Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia).
  
• Sporadic influenza activity was reported by the District of Columbia, Guam, and 28 states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and New Hampshire reported no influenza activity.
  
• Delaware) and the U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 87: As of 7 February 2010, worldwide more than 212 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 15292 deaths.

•During week 6, the following influenza activity was reported:

• No states reported widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity was reported by three states (Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina).
  
• Local influenza activity was reported by Puerto Rico and 9 states (Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia).
  
• Sporadic influenza activity was reported by the District of Columbia and 35 states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• Montana, Nebraska, and New Hampshire and the U.S. Virgin Islands reported no influenza activity
  
• Guam did not report.

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - weekly update #88: As of 14 February 2010, worldwide more than 212 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 15921 deaths.

For Week 7, ending February 20, 2010, the CDC reports:

• No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
  
• Local influenza activity in Connecticut, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and Puerto Rico.
  
• Sporadic activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, and 35 states
  (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Illinois,
  Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota,
  Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon,
  Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington,West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• No influenza activity in Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

According to the WHO update #89—As of 21 February 2010, worldwide more than 213 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 16226 deaths.

2009-2010 Influenza Season Week 8 ending February 27, 2010
The CDC report for Week 8 ending February 27 shows[list]

No states reported widespread influenza activity.

Regional influenza activity in four states (Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina).

Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico and eight states (Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Oklahoma).

Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, and 34 states
(Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana,
Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,
Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont,
Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).

No influenza activity in four states (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, and West
Virginia).

The U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

WHO's update #90 for
5 March 2010 counts, as of 28 February 2010, at least 16455 deaths caused by pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, worldwide.

During week 9, ending March 6, the CDC reported:

• No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in five states (Alabama, Georgia, Maine, Mississippi, and South Carolina).
  
• Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico and six states (Hawaii, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas).
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in Guam and 33 states (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware,
  Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey,
  New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia,
  Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands and six states (Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, and Oregon) reported no influenza activity.
  
• The District of Columbia did not report.

WHO's Update 91, as of 7 March 2010, lists more than 213 countries and overseas territories or communities reporting laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 16713 deaths.

The CDC's Week 10 report, ending March 13, 2010, lists

• ◦No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in three states (Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi).
  
• Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico and eight states (Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas).
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, and 31 states (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).
  
• Eight states (Idaho, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, and Rhode Island) with no influenza activity.
  
• No report from the U.S. Virgin Islands.

As of 14 March 2010, WHO reports a cumulative total of at least 16813 deaths worldwide from influenza H1N1 2009.

The CDC report for Week 11, ending March 20, 2010 lists these influenza activities:

• ◦No states reported widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional activity in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
  
• Local activity Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia and Puerto Rico.
  
• Sporadic activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, and 31 states, including Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
  
• No activity in Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Wyoming.
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

WHO's Update 93, as of 21 March 2010, reports more than 16,931 cumulative deaths worldwide.

The CDC update for week 12, ending March 27, reports

• No states reported widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
  
• Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico and in Arkansas, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi,
  New Mexico, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.
  
• Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Wyoming reported no influenza activity.
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

The WHO update #94 as of 28 March 2010, reports cumulative deaths, worldwide, exceeding 17483.

The CDC Influenza Season update for Week 13, ending April 3, 2010, reports

• No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.
  
• Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico, Hawaii, Mississippi, and Virginia.
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida,Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
  
• No activity in Delaware, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands did not report.

WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 95, as of 4 April 2010, attributes more than 17700 deaths, worldwide, to the pandemic.

The CDC Influenza Report for Week 14, ending April 10, 2010, lists

• No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• Regional influenza activity in Alabama and Georgia.
  
• Local influenza activity in Puerto Rico and Hawaii.
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
  
• No activity in the U.S. Virgin Islands and Delaware, Idaho, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, and Utah.
  
• Maryland did not report.

     WHO's Update #96, as of 11 April 2010, attributes over 17798 deaths worldwide to H1N1 influenza.

The CDC Report on Influenza for Week 15, ending April 17, 2010, lists

• No states with widespread influenza activity.
  
• No states with regional influenza activity.
  
• Local influenza activity in Alabama, Georgia, Hawaii, and South Carolina.
  
• Sporadic influenza activity in the District of Columbia, Guam, Puerto Rico, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin,
  and Wyoming.
  
• Connecticut, Idaho, Maryland, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia had no influenza activity.
  
• The U.S. Virgin Islands and Delaware did not report.

WHO's Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 - update 97, as of 23 April 2010, says overall influenza activity has remained at low levels in most parts of the world. In most countries where human infection of influenza virus was reported, the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) continues to be the predominating influenza A virus subtype (99% in Canada, Chile and the United States and 79.9% globally).