This is a cool-headed discussion--by an expert--of the bird flu threat at present. I believe he's right.
Sean

     The WHO has confirmed more deaths from bird flu; As of April 21, there have been 113 deaths in all. The two most recent victims were an 18 year-old Egyptian girl and a Chinese man aged 21.
     I've seen no mention of either case in the news. I wonder why?
Sean

     The death of a young woman in Cairo brings the total of WHO confirmed bird flu fatalaties up to 114.
Sean

A migration revelation: Birds failed to spread deadly flu A migration revelation: Birds failed to spread deadly flu
By Elisabeth Rosenthal International Herald Tribune

WEDNESDAY, MAY 10, 2006


ROME The flocks of migratory birds that winged their way south to Africa last autumn and then back over Europe in recent weeks did not carry the H5N1 flu virus or spread it during their annual journey, scientists have concluded, defying health officials' dire predictions.

International health officials had feared that the disease was likely to spread to Africa during the winter migration and return to Europe with a vengeance during the reverse migration this spring. That has not happened - a significant finding for Europe, because it is far easier to monitor a virus that exists domestically on farms, but not in nature.

"It is quiet now in terms of cases, which is contrary to what many people had expected," said Ward Hagemeijer, an avian influenza specialist with Wetlands International, an environmental group based in the Netherlands that studies migratory birds.

In thousands of samples collected in Africa this winter, H5N1 was not detected in a single wild bird, officials and scientists said.

more

     The WHO report today lists 123 deaths from bird flu. The most recent victim was an Indonesian boy, age 12.

     You may notice the number of fatalities has increased by nine since the previous WHO report. I've found no explanation for the discrepancy.

     One happy bit of news: Two research teams, one Japanese and one American have found ways to synthesize Tamiflu, the chief remedy for Avian influenza, from readily available ingredients. The Americans have placed their process in public domain, so Tamiflu will soon be plentiful and cheap. Until now Tamiflu's manufacture has depended on a rare herbal substance only supplied by China, so it has been scarce and quite expensive.
Sean

     Six members of an Indonesian family are reported dead from bird flu. The report is verbiose in saying the infection was transmitted between humans rather than acquired from infected birds.

     The report from WHO is more coherent and easier to read. Notice the emphasis on the finding that no mutation or rearrangement has occurred so this event is not likely to be the beginning of a pandemic.
Sean

     Two more Indonesian children died of bird flu this week. That brings total fatalities up to 133, world wide.
Sean

     Seven months later the death count totals 165. Indonesia is still the hot spot. In a new development bird flu has reached the British Isles. It is killing turkeys; no humans are known to be infected.
Sean

We have had two children in Seattle die of complications from the flu, not bird flu, but the annual kind. I haven't seen anywhere that it's said it is very deadly. But...

Edited.

Oh my, BullDoug-
Do you mean your own children?
Sean

Oh my no.
I'm sorry I thought I said in Seattle. Nobody I knew. I was just wondering if you heard if this years version of the flu was particularly harsh.

BullDoug,
     No. So far, the year flu has been slightly less a threat than last year. The week ending February 10 saw a big increase in cases, which is typical of flu season. It is now widespread in WA, as in most of the USA. If the pattern remains the usual, the number of cases will peak in about two weeks and we'll have a clue about how bad this round will be. Here is the current USA flu map
Sean

Odd thing tonight.

I stopped at the 7-11 around the block from my house. There was only one other customer there, she was talking to the clerk. She worked nearby, heading to work. She said she spent a day in the hospital with the flu last week. She said her temperature spiked to 104 deg.. They told her it was only the flu. She was back to work in 3 days. Appeared fine. But she said she was horribly ill for the first two days.

Sounds like we have a rather bad bug here.

Flu viruses may be developing drug resistance
Updated Tue. Apr. 3 2007 5:22 PM ET

Canadian Press

TORONTO -- There is new and unwelcome evidence that flu viruses can evolve to develop resistance to the antiviral drugs Tamiflu and Relenza and that those less susceptible viruses can spread from person to person.

Japanese researchers reported Tuesday that influenza B viruses recovered from several people who had not taken flu drugs were partially resistant to Tamiflu, Relenza or both, suggesting these less susceptible viruses were spreading at low levels in their communities.

It had been hoped that viruses that developed resistance to neuraminidase inhibitors -- the drug class to which oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) belong -- would be so weakened by the mutations that make them resistant that they wouldn't be able to spread from person to person. This and other recent research suggests that's not the case.

Source

(Norovirus slamming England)

Winter vomiting bug sweeps UK

Thu Jan 3, 2008 9:56am EST


By Peter Griffiths

LONDON (Reuters) - Hundreds of thousands of people have been struck down by a highly infectious stomach bug that swept the United Kingdom during the holiday period, doctors said on Thursday.

The Royal College of General Practitioners, which represents 27,000 family doctors, estimates that 100,000 people a week caught the norovirus bug, which causes vomiting and diarrhea.

"GPs are seeing a huge number of cases of patients with the norovirus," said its chairman Professor Steve Field. "Our advice for those affected is to stay at home, take paracetamol and drink plenty of fluids."

The UK's Health Protection Agency, the body that monitors infectious diseases, said the number of cases reported in early winter was the highest since 2002 and double the total this time last year.

The virus is most common in colder months and is also known as the winter vomiting bug. Outbreaks are often reported in places like hospitals, schools and cruise ships.

People who catch the bug are violently sick and may get a mild fever, aching limbs, headaches and cramps. The illness lasts between 12 and 60 hours.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL0366795420080103

I got my flu shot today so I should be immune before the season starts. The good news is that the vaccine is plentiful this year and that it confers immunity to the virus strain that is circulating. The bad news is the price: At nearly $80/dose it will cost a large family dearly unless health insurance foots the bill.

Find flu-shot providers.
Seán

The Flu Map for 2008, Week 40, has been posted. It shows sporadic cases, mainly in some coastal states.
Seán

Hi--sauntering my way to the news section and saw the flu flag.
$80 a DOSE!!??
You've been HAD, buddy.
Try your local Dept.of Health next time.
Sheesh--we're swimming in the stuff this year.

As far an avian flu? Fuggedaboudit.
114 deaths world wide?
Pfff big deal.
Regular flu'll get 48,000 dead this year in THIS country. Let's keep a reasonable perspective, shall we?

What should be of FURTHER comfort to the many is that the last deadly pandemic in 1918 was not caused by the Flu, per se, but by the bacterial infections that gave folks pneumonia, ect following the viral infection.
And THANKS TO MODERN MEDICINE, why, today we have antibiotics!

We're gonna be OK folks.

It is now recommended all pregnant mothers GET a flu vaccine--it gives immunity to both Mom and baby.

     The USA flu map for week 49 shows the low incidence typical for this time of year. The season still has 18 weeks to go. (Note: If the map displays improperly, click your Refresh Button.)
Seán

Happy Winter Solstice!

Flu is sporadic in most of the United States, but the number of cases is below the norm. Doubtless the count will soon rise as festive mingling promotes contagion.
Seán

Happy President's Day!
Now you can catch the flu anywhere you live! This is a great convenience.

Click refresh if the map looks wrong.
Seán

     Just as the flu season was beginning to wind down, this happens! The virus is a combination of human, swine and bird flu that has been lethal in Mexico but not for the eight cases reported in the USA.
     The CDC is investigating, but presents no useful information as of April 24.
Sean

Here is the latest word from the World Health Organization.
Seán

     Yahoo news reports the number of deaths attributed to swine flu at 149 in Mexico, where nearly 2,000 people are believed to be infected. As of April 27, U.S. cases numbered 48, primarily at a New York City school, with other U.S. cases reported in Ohio, Kansas, Texas and California. There have been no U.S. fatalities. Elsewhere 73 cases have been reported, including six in Canada, one in Spain and two in Scotland.
Seán

     WHO plans to provide daily updates. This one, dated April 27, gives a lower count than the one from Yahoo news for the same day. The story on MSNBC offers even larger numbers than Yahoo does.
Seán

See also: CDC update for April 28.