Peachy,
     In September, shots for seasonal flu were commercially available here. Fortunately I had one then because, in October, the vaccine became unavailable. The small NM allotment of vaccine for H1N1 has gone entirely to health workers who, of course, are at greater risk than other people. H1N1 flu is abating now, so the threat of catching it may well have ended before more vaccine arrives.
Seán

quote:

Thank you. I'm sorry that's what you took from my statements.

Peachy,

I guess there was a bit of misunderstanding on both sides in our exchange.

I admit I assumed when you said "at a regular visit with our doctor" that he was a General Practitioner and not a specialist since the insurance schemes here and all HMOs require a GP to filter all trips to specialists and for any visits that would be in the "regular" category. I know exceptions are possible to make a specialist a primary doctor but those exceptions are rare.

I also am very willing to concede that indeed if he is a specialist then all his patients could be at higher risk.

Regarding:

quote:

Vaccine will not be distributed to every single person in every single target group in our country. It doesn't need to be. Only enough people need to get both vaccines to prevent an epidemic or pandemic. The CDC knows what those numbers are. Others innoculated will protect us as well of course, because they won't be spreading it.

and

quote:

H1N1 flu is abating now, so the threat of catching it may well have ended before more vaccine arrives.
Seán

This relationship is what I was pondering in my earlier note. I was playing with the numbers in my head.

Let's say the virus is circulating in your community and you have have a 1 in 100 chance of catching it if you go to the grocery store. Later, half the people have either had it and now are immune or have been innoculated. Your chances of catching of catching it fall to 1 in 200 on your next trip to the store.

But after 4 trips to the store your odds are 4/200 or up to 1 in 50 despite half no longer being a risk.

This is why I was saying it is more dependant on the number of people you contact and how often than it is on how many are immune as long it is still circulating anywhere in your area.

Looking at the numbers that way, it appears it is very difficult to mitigate the virus. Prevent a pandemic where so many people are sick at once? Sure. But it seems that only slows the infection rate, not eliminates your chance of getting it with the population as high as it is and as many people we pass in a day. Or are or were in the store we might be frequenting. (thousands?)

Put simply, it is that your chances of catching it today might fall but your chances of catching it eventually fall very little until it dies out completely.

I know this from working retail in my early days and service later. We would catch every bug out there eventually when dealing with so many people, and handling money.

Some customers could be incredibly stupid and inconsiderate. I would arrive at a home and they would say they demanded emergency service today (lied) just to have their appliances serviced, no problem with them, because they were stuck at home since the rest of the family was home sick. Grrr. Sure enough I would be sick a few days later.

I catch very few seasonal illnesses since I stopped having to interact with so many people.

quote:

I catch very few seasonal illnesses since I stopped having to interact with so many people.—Bulldoug

Doug,
     I believe your analysis is correct. I imagine the flu season would be less pronounced if it did not coincide with Christmas shopping and the sundry festive gatherings associated with this time of year. I try to minimize exposure by purchasing my groceries on Sunday mornings, early, whie honest citizens are abed. Frequently I am the only customer in the entire store. Even then I scope the clerks and choose the one who seems most healthy before I go through check-out.
Seán

Sean,
I could be wrong about not wanting the vaccine. I don't know but I don't plan to get the shot...or the flu!

-T

quote:

I don't plan to get the shot...or the flu!—Tuesday

     Yours, probably, it the better attitude: I doubt we'll even have a chance to get the shot this year. Let's hope H1N1 will go away so protection won't be needed. That is what has happened after outbreaks of other deadly kinds of flu.
Seán

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:

quote:

I catch very few seasonal illnesses since I stopped having to interact with so many people.—Bulldoug

Doug,
     I believe your analysis is correct. I imagine the flu season would be less pronounced if it did not coincide with Christmas shopping and the sundry festive gatherings associated with this time of year. I try to minimize exposure by purchasing my groceries on Sunday mornings, early, whie honest citizens are abed. Frequently I am the only customer in the entire store. Even then I scope the clerks and choose the one who seems most healthy before I go through check-out.
Seán

Oh Sean,

I love to go to the store at odd hours.....mostly just to have it to myself but sometimes it's not as well-stocked. Man I HEAR you about cashiers sneezing and coughing all over my food! People these days aren't given much if any sick leave or they call it personal time and when winter rolls around, there's no time left to be out sick and they are docked....Sooooo they come to work sick.

My solution is brilliant. Do you have self-check out lines in Albuquerque?

Peachy

quote:

Do you have self-check out lines in Albuquerque?—Peachy

Peachy,
     In modern Albuquerque they do, but that is far from where I live. The stores I use call themselves supermarkets, but they are really only overgrown mom-and-pop groceries. I deal with them partly because I support family business in general, but also because I go shopping mostly on a bike and those stores are more convenient.
Seán

Neat!

I was in a little village near Albuquerque called Madrid. I'm sure there are others....Ever heard of it?

Peachy

Peachy,
     Madrid? Sure, I've heard of it. I remember it when it was a coal-mining ghost town in the mountains on a back road between Santa Fé and Albuquerque. Now it has taken on a new life as the home of a colony of unfettered spirits and will, in all liklihood, become a sort of Mecca for nonconformists.
Seán

Funky little artsy place. I found some wonderful Zuni frog fetishes.

Non-conformist might be a stretch but nothing like it down here.

The closest thing we have to counter culture is the local Waffle House.

For Week 48 ending December 8, 2009 the CDC reports decreased flu activity; 99% of confirmed infections were by 2009 influenza A(H1N1). Only fourteen states reported geographically widespread influenza activity.
Seán

The WHO update #78, as of 11 December 2009, says more than 208 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 9596 deaths.

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
Peachy,
     Madrid? Sure, I've heard of it. I remember it when it was a coal-mining ghost town in the mountains on a back road between Santa Fé and Albuquerque. Now it has taken on a new life as the home of a colony of unfettered spirits and will, in all liklihood, become a sort of Mecca for nonconformists.
Seán

Sean,

A "Mecca for nonconformists," huh? Sounds like my kind of place!

I haven't looked at this thread before, but decided to check it out today because my son told me he's been very sick with the flu. He's better now and finally brought over the stuff from my storage locker last night (it's a long, sad story). Anyway, I wondered if he had the H1N1 flu everyone is so worried about, or if it was another season flu. He said he was really sick for a while.

My son is an elementary school teacher's aide and he also does one-on-one tutoring, so naturally he gets exposed to every bug that comes along.

--Linda

One step forward, then 800K steps back

Linda,
     Little NM towns tend to be forgotten when the ore runs out or new highways provide easy access to bigger towns with better stores. After that they lie fallow for a few decades while accumulating dust and prairie dogs. Eventually a generation of young malcontents discovers them, sees a setting for a private paradise, and settles in for good and ever. In time the malcontents mature into semisolid citizens. Word spreads to nonconformists who, attracted by the smell of freedom, make the pilgrimage, and, quite often, stay.
     Of course, once the population reaches a critical level, regulations are essential, so a kangaroo government is established. After that, it's downhill all the way. Folks might as well have stayed in Omaha.
Seán

quote:

Of course, once the population reaches a critical level, regulations are essential, so a kangaroo government is established. After that, it's downhill all the way. Folks might as well have stayed in Omaha.
Seán

"Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss".

That is the best one I could come up with. I was trying to think of another cliche' that still eludes me. Something along the lines that "We are the enemy" or "We become that which we protested against" or "Those that protested against the establisment are now the establishment".

Something like that.

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
One step forward, then 800K steps back

This was a total recall of all the vaccine that lacked the thermosol preservative. Mainly only affects children doses for those that feared the mercury base of the preservative they have been trying to connect to Autism. They are still looking hard for a cause of the rise in Autism.

I read that although the total doses produced so far have barely covered the number of all those in the high risk group that demand by those people is now falling. Production has now matched the rate of demand although barely meeting the total protential demand by the high risk group.

This means in some areas and a couple of states they are now opening up the vaccine to all comers. Georgia is one such state. As the rate of infection has slowed, fear subsiding, and more doses on the way, it should not be long before most states will be making the vaccine available to all as the new doses arrive.

I may yet be able to get a shot before I get sick and dodge that bullet.

Doug,
     The Center for Disease Control offers a summary of studies concerned with mercury preservatives in relation to autism. No correlation has been established. That is not to say mercury is not harmful in some other way.
Seán

quote:

No correlation has been established.

Of that I was aware but there are enough people who are still concerned about it that they produced those doses without the preservative.

     The wait for H1N1 vaccine is nearly over. Check for its availability in your state.
Seán

quote:

I may yet be able to get a shot before I get sick and dodge that bullet.

I've read that you can actually get this shot "too early." November - December is the optimum time to be at peak efficacy during typical flu season.

Peachy

quote:

Originally posted by Avenging Peach:

quote:

I may yet be able to get a shot before I get sick and dodge that bullet.

I've read that you can actually get this shot "too early." November - December is the optimum time to be at peak efficacy during typical flu season.

Peachy

That doesn't make much sense to me. I have heard that about the seasonal flu but not H1N1.

The reason they say that about the seasonal flu is the time lag between identifying the most current form, mutations, and producing the vaccine. They say with the earlier seasonal shots you are getting protection against last years viruses. They "update" and produce the seasonal vaccine all the time. IOW during the winter flu season there are at least two or more generations of vaccine.

I heard the best time to get the seasonal vaccine is after the first of the year but unless you ask you don't know if you are getting the latest vaccine and protection for the latest flu. You do risk getting the flu earlier as flu season starts earlier but generally the early shots don't protect against the lastest ones anyway.

While I can accept that your immunity may be highest two or three weeks after getting the H1N1 shot, it takes that long to develope the antibodies, if people still have immunity from the 1950's I find it difficult to believe that timing is an issue.

quote:

Originally posted by Sean:
     The wait for H1N1 vaccine is nearly over. Check for its availability in your state.
Seán

Although they have now opened it up to all comers the availability of vaccine is still very limited. I will likely wait another week or two. I would hate to have a bit of a reaction for Christmas.

The first seasonal vaccine I ever received that I can recall, maybe 8-10 years ago, made my arm very sore and I had a slight fever for a couple of days. Made me a bit tired as well.

But no reaction with the recent one. That was only the second or third one ever.